Most Americans who vow to leave over an election never do. Will this year be different?

Deirdre Roney wanted an escape plan – a place to go if her darkest fears about America’s democracy came to pass.

The Los Angeles attorney and activist for immigrant and voting rights has worried about a rise of authoritarianism ever since Donald Trump won the presidency in 2016. As this fall’s election drew closer, that anxiety only grew.

Trump has vowed “retribution” if he wins and a “bloodbath” if he loses. Though she says she’s not a high-profile activist, Roney fears political persecution could become a reality. “I would challenge you to find somebody who's as depressed and dark and scared as I am,” she said.

So, this summer, she secured her escape hatch. She and her husband obtained dual citizenship in the Caribbean nation of Antigua and Barbuda in exchange for a development fund investment of about $100,000, she said – a barrier-free overseas refuge to use if she feels unsafe.

“I wanted us to have a place to go,” she said. “I wanted a Plan B.”

The idea of moving to another country to protest a presidential administration or political policy isn’t new – think the Vietnam War or even vows to move following the re-election of President George W. Bush. Even Trump once joked he might leave if Biden was elected. 

Typically, relatively few who vow to leave actually make the move, said Amanda Klekowski von Koppenfels, a University of Kent migration scholar and expert on Americans abroad.

But this year, as voter anxiety hits the red zone ahead of a divisive election contest between Trump and President Joe Biden, there are signs that Americans from a cross-section of society are taking a more serious look at the exits.

The percentage of U.S. citizens who would settle abroad if they were able reached 34% in a March 26 poll by Monmouth University, up from 12% since 1995. Monmouth polling officials said they believe the political rancor of recent years likely helped fuel the rise.

For some current and former members of U.S. law enforcement and intelligence community, threats to jail political opponents are driving them to weigh whether they may have to leave to avoid being illegally detained, according to a former FBI director.

A recent survey by the publisher International Living found that 65% of more than 2,700 readers said that concerns about the political climate prompted them to accelerate plans to relocate overseas.

Henley & Partners, a large global residence and citizenship advisory firm, reported this year that wealthy Americans are pursuing backup citizenship or residence abroad at record levels. Motivations for its clients include political risk along with tax or business reasons.

Several other firms that help Americans live or work abroad told USA TODAY that political uncertainty is driving a spike not just in inquiries and but in concrete efforts to secure visas, homes, dual citizenship or foreign work permits – whether to move or to set up a contingency plan. 

David Lesperance, a Canadian tax and immigration advisor whose firm helps people secure dual citizenships or residency abroad, said most of his U.S. clients now cite concerns including political polarization and deadlock, antisemitism, gun violence, threats to LGBTQ rights, fear of rule by “the other party” and retribution by a Trump administration. 

And for some, such moves are also easier in the era of remote work.

“What’s different today is people are acting on it,” Lesperance said, adding that the Supreme Court ruling relating to presidential immunity has further ratcheted up concerns. “They sense the danger is real.”

Whether significant numbers of Americans actually pull up stakes is far from certain. Moving abroad brings the challenges of obtaining a visa and leaving behind family obligations. And some view such sentiments as an overreaction at home when other countries also face new political turmoil.

But it’s an idea that is a growing topic of conversation, especially after a presidential debate that raised new questions about Biden’s suitability and Trump’s repeated falsehoods. Even before that, some said, the urge to escape has spurred calls for advice to friends living overseas.